"Philip Schwartz, Probable Error, and the Variability of the Ballistic Trajectory"

At the close of World War I those who studied ballistics began to turn their attention to the "second order effects" - how such factors as wind, density of air, and small changes in initial velocity affected the range of a projectile. Related to these questions is the matter of the dispersion of a series of shots fired under as nearly identical conditions as possible, and how one measures this dispersion. In the United States efforts were made to introduce standard tools of elementary probability: mean, standard deviation (actually "probable error") , and normal distribution of errors, into this milieu, with mixed results. The talk highlights the attempt of Philip Schwartz, a young artillery officer with some mathematical background and an associate of Oswald Veblen, to analyze these concepts as they were used in dealing with the data of artillery firing. Emphasis is given on how difficult men found it to understand, defend, and apply these concepts by viewing a controversy played out in the pages of the Coast Artillery Journal during the years 1924-1930. No knowledge other than that of elementary probability and the normal distribution is required.

Time: 6:00 p.m.

Place: Villanova University